Part Time USA
“I tried for modeling work but it was a bit slow and that’s when I took a part-time job at McDonalds. It gave me income while I was waiting for my big break and at the very least I could eat.” Sharon Stone
Friday as the jobs report was being released Ryan Sloper and I were doing our weekly podcast.
In real time we saw the headline non farm payroll number come in better than expected and speculated the bond, gold and silver markets would react negatively as a positive job number might mean the dreaded tapering of quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve might begin soon.
We also speculated that the job number might not be as good as it seemed as many of the jobs created might have been part time work. Moments later we saw that the underemployment rate rose from 13.8% to 14.3% confirming our suspicions. We noted that the market, at least on Friday, would pay attention only to the headline “solid” jobs report. The bond, gold and silver markets sold off on Friday. The stock market cheered the “good news”.
We also speculated that as investors dug behind the numbers they might come to a different conclusion that isn’t based on wishful thinking. They might come to the conclusion that the economy and employment market is not recovering even with massive doses of QE and realize the Fed has no exit strategy and no alternative but to continue to print money – No Fed Exit.
Real Estate 360 Live
The Part Time Recovery by the Numbers
Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) broke down the state of our part time employment economy this way:
Total Jobs in the Economy 135.9 million- 1.6% fewer than five and half years ago when the recession began
June part time jobs created:360,000
June full time jobs lost: 240,000
2013 part time jobs created:557,000
2013 full time jobs created: 130,000
45% of college graduated have jobs that don’t require a college degree (citing McKinsey & Co)
Unemployment rate for 18- to 29-year-olds: 16.1%, with 1.7 million having dropped out of the labor force entirely.
IBD notes that: ” the net addition to June jobs — repeat, all — were part time.”
IBD concluded the jobs report wasn’t “solid” but rather reflected a crisis.
We agree. Looks like the Fed spent trillions of dollars to create a few hundred thousand part time jobs.
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For more on how the surge in part time employment and lull in full time employment is impacting the economy and real estate markets see also:
Temporary Temp Workers or Permanent Temp Workers
Student Loans and Unemployment are Holding Back the Economy
As the Band played on the Crowd Called for an Encore
The Coming Real Estate Supply/Demand Inventory Reversal
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