The Part Time Recovery
Are we becoming a nation of part timers?
Discussion of the upcoming job report number & unemployment rate releases & predictions on the impact of a potentially improving job market 1:40-7:05
Discussion of mortgages & the float down option mortgage 7:05-10:06
Louis predicts that if the jobs number comes in better than expected it will be because of more part time jobs not an overall improvement in the jobs market:10:06-11:08
Discussion of the recent decision of postpone the employer mandate to begin Obamacare and its potential impact on employment. Louis notes the surge in part time help wanted signs and asks if an economic recovery can be based on a surge in part time employees 11:08- 14.18
Discussion of the increase in part time workers and the negative impact on the real estate market 14:18-14:52
Discussion of how part time workers can get mortgages 14:52-16:56
Discussion of how self employed people can get a mortgage 16:56-29:08
Discussion of the concerted effort to convince people of a recovery 29:08-30:45
THE JOB NUMBER IS ANNOUNCED 30:45-35:45
Louis announces that the jobs report was 195,000 and discussion ensues
Discussion of where interest rates are headed and the impact on the real estate market and the US government 35:45 -38:04
Discussion of the economy cheerleaders who are touting recovery because they have a vested interest in claiming “recovery” 38:04- 42.09
Discussion of how to follow the Fed and mortgage rates and the real estate market 43:00-49:25
Discussion of the U.S. debt situation and how it gets less attention as a threat to the economy 49:25-52:20
Discussion of the Fed’s “no exit” dilemma. 52:20-54:27
Discussion of how Egypt might impact Fed policy and the economy 54:27-58:23
Credit Tip of the Week 58:23-
Ryan Sloper and Louis Cammarosano preview the upcoming non farm jobs report that will be released during the show. Louis notes that the European Central Bank, The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have all indicated that they will continue with accommodative low interest rate policies.
Louis expresses concerns that if the jobs report is good today that the Fed would have justification to taper it quantitative easing (QE) program and notes that this would create imbalances among the world economies. This would create an even stronger dollar and create an even further U.S. trade imbalances.
Louis predicts a slight improvement in the job number but not enough for it to indicate definitive improvement in the economy so that the Fed would need to taper QE. Ryan notes the impact of employment and Fed action on the real estate market. Ryan says that it would be bad for the bond market if the employment number comes in good. Ryan notes that when selecting a mortgage broker consumers should work with one in tune with current economic data. Ryan explains a float down option mortgage.
Louis notes that even if the headline jobs number is better than expected it won’t really mean that the employment situation is getting better it will mean more people got part-time jobs. Louis and Ryan discuss the recent decision to postpone the employer mandate to begin Obamacare until 2014 and its potential impact on employment. Louis notes the surge in part time help wanted signs and asks can a recovery be based on an increase in part-time employment.
Louis notes that part time work is increasing not because productivity is increasing and workers can complete their jobs in few hours but that employers require staff on site for a certain amount of hours and can cost effectively fill these hours with part time workers. Louis and Ryan discuss the negative impact of part time workers on the real estate market.Louis notes that part time workers and debt laden underemployed/unemployed college graduates can not get mortgages and buy homes.
Ryan discusses how part-time workers and the self employed can get mortgages. Louis notes the Catch 22 that the self employed are in when applying for a mortgage.
Louis notes that the economy is not recovering yet there seems to be a concerted effort to convince people that there is a recovery.
Louis announces that the jobs report was 195,000 and notes that in people’s minds tapering is on the cards, and predicts that mortgage rates will shoot up and gold and silver will head down.
Louis notes that the underemployment number -U6 rose to 14.3% from 13.8% confirming suspicions that most of the new jobs created were part time jobs and questions whether the Fed should taper based on the creation of part time workers. Louis thinks the Fed wants any excuse to continue QE but that they also want to appear to be the cleanest towel in the dirty laundry bin vs the BOJ, BOE and the ECB. The Fed wants to appear unlike the other central banks that they actually have an exit strategy and timeline.
Louis notes that the U6 number could give the Fed reason not to taper. Ryan notes that the Fed tends not to look at the U6 number. Louis notes that the initial reaction from the markets is that the beating of expectations on the top line jobs number is to act as if the Fed will taper and that is driving bonds, gold and silver lower but notes that perhaps after the data is digested that markets may come to view the report as not so good.
Louis and Ryan discuss the impact of higher interest rates on the real estate market.
Louis notes that many are touting the latest jobs number as evidence of a “solid recovery” Louis notes that you can’t wish a recovery. Louis notes that there is wishful economic propaganda coming from people who have a vested interest in claiming that the Fed’s policies are working (i.e. pro administration and Keynesians). Louis notes that politically allocating capital is inefficient and creates bubbles.
Louis and Ryan discuss how to follow and interpret the Fed and the markets. Louis predicts that if the job numbers continue to come in showing more part time workers it may change the perception that the Fed will taper. Louis notes that if the Fed is of the mind that QE can help the economy,(it doesn’t) its still needs help and should continue their QE policy especially if all the other countries are debasing their currencies.
Louis notes that the U6 number is bad news but is being ignored.
Louis notes that if mortgage interest rates rise to 6% home prices will drop.
Louis notes that with all the taper talk what has been forgotten is the U.S. massive deficit. The deficit is no longer discussed as a threat to the economy. Louis notes as interest rates rise it will impact the ability of the US to borrow cheaply and will raise the costs of servicing the existing debt that would further add to the deficit. Ryan notes that this is another reason why the Fed would not taper.
Louis notes that the Fed may taper from $85 billion-$65 billion but that would still be a huge amount of QE.
Louis notes that there are some who think the Fed is bluffing and has no intention of tapering. If however the Fed does taper it may have to reverser course, but if they did they would appear desperate.
Louis notes that Egypt could impact Fed policy.
Ryan gives the credit tip of the week.
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