What Would Happen If Silver Became a Preferred Method of Saving For a Small Percentage of the U.S. Labor Force?
If a small percentage, or a single percent of the U.S. Labor Force were to purchase silver, the additional demand would overwhelm supply.
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Silver the “Just in Time” Commodity
The silver market is tiny and the U.S. labor force is huge. According the Bureau of Labor Statistics approximately 160,000,000 (160 million) people are attached to the labor force (and about 90 million are not).
There are no major silver stock piles (other than what is already in investment vehicles like silver ETFs or Comex vaults) Silver demand is therefore satisfied “just in time” from current mining production.
Global silver mining production was about 850 million ounces in 2015, with a value of about $13 billion.*
Global silver mining prodution is projected to fall as much as 9% in 2016.
Based an estimate of 850 million ounces of silver mined globally in 2015 and a silver price per ounce of $15, the value of global silver mining production is under $13 billion.*
Because of tiny size of the silver market and the impact an increase in currently elevated levels of demand would have, the Wealthwatchman has noted that silver needs to stay under the radar.
Here are charts that show the impact of an increase of a small percentage of the 160 million person U.S. Labor Force saving in silver.
If one to four percent of the U.S. Labor force bought one to three ounces of silver a month:
If one percent of the U.S. labor force bought just three coins a month it would result in additional demand of 57 million ounces
If one to four percent of the U.S. Labor force bought four to six ounces of silver a month:
If four percent of the U.S. labor force bought six coins a month it would result in additional demand of 460,800,00 ounces
Chart Showing The Impact of 1-4% of the U.S. Labor Force Buying 1-6 Ounces of Silver a Month For a Year
The impact of a small increase in the percentage of people investing in small amounts of silver would have a dramatic impact on demand.
Compare American Silver Eagles for sale at:
SD Bullion
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What If 1/2 of One Percent Of the U.S. Labor Force Saved In Silver?
Even if just 1/2 of one percent of the U.S. labor force bought six ounces of silver a month (72 ounces a year), that would add another 57,600,000 ounces to demand, effectively doubling the current record pace of American Silver Eagle demand this year.
The analysis above supposes an increase in U.S. demand only. Similar increases in the demand numbers above could be achieved with proportionally lower percentages of Americans buying proportionally less silver if there were just small increases in the percentage of people saving in silver in each of Europe and Asia.
Impact on demand
The pie is not growing, but silver coin, round and bar demand is.
Silver coins and bars constituted just 5.2% of overall silver demand in 2006.
Silver coin and bar demand now consitutes well over 20% of overall silver demand.
For a complete silver supply and demand analysis, click here.
U.S. Mint First Quarter Record Sales
In 2015 the U.S. Mint sold a record 47 million one ounce American Silver Eagle coins. Sales of American Silver Eagles are running well ahead of last year’s record pace.
The United States Mint sold a record number of American Silver Eagle coins in the first quarter of 2016.
Compare prices and shipping of Perth Mint Silver Kangaroo Coins for sale at these online bullion dealers:
SD Bullion
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Money Metals Exchange
Perth Mint March Sales
The Perth Mint has sold over one million ounces of silver a month since September 2015- the month of the introduction of the Australian Silver Kanagroo coin.
*value of 2015 global silver mining production assumes 850 million ounces mined and a price of $15 per ounce.
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April Silver Market Update
Yesterday I spoke with Rory Hall of the Daily Coin about the silver market. We discussed the silver sales at the United States and Perth Mint in March.
We also discussed the impact on the silver market if a small percentage of the U.S. labor force were to start saving in silver.
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