Case Shiller Index Futures Traders vs. Smaulgld: You Vote!

Real Estate News.

I have written many articles questioning the strength and length of the current housing bubblet. Here is the most recent one. Here is another one that contains links to many of the others.

These articles caught the eye of John H. Dolan, who is the sole market maker in the Case Shiller home price index futures that are traded on the CME and runs a blog at

Mr. Dolan points out that futures traders don’t agree with my assessment that home prices won’t continue to rise and sent me the chart below that shows bids, offers, closes and the history of the CUS 10-city index (on the left scale.) for the 11 contracts that expire from Nov 2013 to Nov 2017. The right scale shows the percent of those prices relative to the Case Shiller values for Dec 2012.

In addition to the 10-city index, Mr.Dolan points out there are contracts on each of the ten component regions (BOS, CHI, DEN, LAV, LAX, MIA,NYM, SDG,SFR and WDC) and that the quotes suggest that home prices in every region will be more than 10% higher by Nov 2014.


Home buyers and sellers will ultimately settle where home prices are headed. Here is a poll where you can place your vote now:

The poll above is not based on any scientific sampling.
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