The Fed’s No Exit Dilemma – Podcast 11.22.13

The Fed’s No Exit Dilemma

JM Bullion

Podcast Summary:

Topics discussed

0:00-7:45 Fudging of the unemployment numbers prior to the 2012 election;the integrity of government data; QE’s impact on the economy.

7:45-13:45 data manipulation and interpretation by the Fed and the media; interpretation of initial jobless claims;Fed’s concern about not enough inflation;the media’s “recovery” mantra.

13:45-18:15 the minutes of the FOMC October meeting; the Fed’s no exit dilemma; Fed presidents talking at cross purposes with each other and themselves regarding tapering QE.

18:15 -26:24 the impact of QE taper talk on interest rates; the Fed’s proposal to keep rates low with out QE and how the bond market rejects it; the Fed’s stance that tapering is data dependent but keeping rates low for the next two years is not; angry birds analogy;the Fed’s credibility on tapering; why there is no price inflation.

26:24-33:45 how to take advantage of low interest rates;the plight of Obama and Obamacare;reasons the Fed wants to taper QE- not because they think the economy is getting better but because their balance sheet is growing too large; can the Fed find another buyer for the securities they are buying; student loan defaults; the plight of Gen Y and how QE causes it; how QE prevents creative destruction;the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and its implications-exporting inflation.

33:45-41:35 underwater homeowners and housing inventory and the impact on the housing market and prices; the downside of rising home prices;affordability of homes vs. stocks.

41:35-54:40 home buyer behavior when interest rates rise;the difference between the D.C. metro area housing market and the rest of the country;Obama’s complaint that the government has poor procurement procedures; woes and the impact on the electorate and comparison to QE; the Fed blaming fiscal policy for the U.S. economic woes; impact of independents’ views on Obamacare on the next budget talks; Obamacare flaws and late night talk show jokes.

54:40 Credit tip of the week

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Further Reading:

Message to the Fed – Tapering IS Tightening

Five Long Years in the Fed’s Potemkin Village

Janet Yellin and the Precious Printing Press
Janet Yellen and Negative Interest Rates

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