In Case You Missed It – Week Ended November 7, 2015.

Stories from the week ended November 7, 2015.

The big news of the week was the huge beat of expectations of the headline non farm payroll number on Friday. This week we will be dissecting what types of jobs were created and to whom they went. Wall Street and the main stream media focused only on the top line non farm payroll number. Coupled with Janet Yellen’s statement earlier in the week that a rate hike in December was a “live possibility”, the consensus of Wall Street and economists is that a rate hike is coming. We agree for different reasons.

Back in June we predicted that the Fed would use a “sturdy” non farm payroll number to justify its decision to raise interest rates. They would cite this number as evidence that the economy was doing well. The Fed seems determined to get a rate hike in to justify that their zero interest policy and quantitative easing programs worked. (it didn’t) After that, having gained credibiity for raising rates, they can talk about another rate hike for months, then start cutting rates again and eventually going to negative interest rates and another round of QE.

Gold closed last week at $1141.70 and closed this week at $1089.40

Silver closed last week at $15.53 and closed this week at $14.74

Here are the stories we wrote, followed or commented on.

October 31, 2015

European Central Bank

Mario Draghi reasserts pledge to do what ever it takes

Gold

£500,000 of Smuggled gold auctioned in Belfast

Texas Gold Depository seeking help to build

War on Cash

INSANE Sweden Pulling ATMs, Wants to Ban Cash

November 1, 2015

War On Cash

Norway’s second largest bank ditches cash

Gold and Silver

From Smaulgld.com – Austrian Mint sets annual gold sales record in just nine months.

Europeans Prefer Gold?

Austrian Mint sales of the Vienna Gold Philharmonic coin set an annual sales record.

Gold Imports dip in September – See Indian Gold Import Charts

Chinese Economy

Chinese October Servies PMI at seven year low

November 2, 2015

Shine On Jamie Dimon

JP Morgan pays another fine – $100 million

J.P. Morgan : A Fed interest-rate hike this year could be good for stocks

U.S. Debt Ceiling

Obama signs Congressional bill that raises budget cap higher

U.S. Economic Data

U.S. Manufacturing hits lowest levels since May 2013

From Smaulgld.com

Platinum ETFs Experience Large Outflows

November 3, 2015

U.S. Mint Sales Update

U.S. Mint sold 1,500 American Gold Eagles & 763,500 American Silver Eagles today to kick off November.

U.S. Economic Data

Factory orders fall for second month

New Car sales soar while new home sales stagnate

From Smaulgld.com

New Car Sales vs. New Home Sales

U.K. Banks

U.K.’s Standard Charter Bank to cut 15,000 employees

Chinese Economy/Bitcoin

China experiencing record capital outflows Bitcoin surges

Try BitGold and get a 5% bonus on your first deposit

November 4, 2015

Yellen Yacks

Yellen considers Negative Interest Rates

From Smaulgld.com October 2013: Janet Yellen and Negative Interest Rates

The Yellen Delusion “Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace” “I see the U.S. economy as performing well”

Yellen says that a rate hike in December is a “live possibility“

U.S. Economic Data

US Services ISM 54.8, Exp. 54.5, Prior 54.4

ADP Employment in advance of Non Farm Payroll Friday 182K, Exp. 180K

US Sept. Deficit $40.8B, Exp. $41B, Last $48.02B

November 5, 2015

From Smaulgld.com

The Decline and Fall of the World’s First Silver Empire

Roman Empire map with silver content in the Roman Denarius

U.K. Banks

The UK Central bank also plays the ‘talking rate hike’ game

Bitcoin

As Bitcoin surged 30% during the week, its detractors spoke out.

Bloomberg says Russian hacker in Chinese Ponzi scheme behind sudden surge in bitcoin

Shine on Jamie Dimon

JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin will be stopped before it gets big

Silver

Silver Wheaton in $900 million deal with Glencore

Browse Silver Coins on Amazon

Gold

India Launches Gold Monetization Scheme

India wants its citizens to turn in their gold

India launches three gold three gold related schemes

India issues first offical gold coin

U.S. Economic Data

Initial Claims 276K, Exp. 262K

Labor Costs 1.4%, Exp. 2.5%.

November 6, 2015

U.S. Mint Sales Update

The US Mint sold 3K American Gold Eagles and 316,000 American Silver Eagles today

MTD Sales: 4,500 American Gold Eagles; 1,079,500 American Silver Eagles
YTD Sales 550,500 American Gold Eagles; 40,922,000 American Silver Eagles

Gold

From Smaulgld.com:

Shanghai Gold Exchange Withdrawals

Shanghai gold exchange withdrawals by week in 2015.

U.S. Economic Data

Non Farm Payroll. 271k Exp. 184K
Ave hourly rate 0.4%
Unemployment Rate 5%
Labor force participation rate unchanged at 62.4%
U6 9.6%

Jobs Created in October:
Education and Health: +57K
Professional Business Services/Temp Help: +54K
Retail Trade: +44K
Leisure and Hospitality: +41K
Temp Help: +25K
Manufacturing workers: +0
Mining lost jobs

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans on CNBC with Steve Liesman immediately after the non farm payroll numbers were released:

Jobs number was good news
Looking for 2.5% growth next year -but based on highly accomodative monetary policy
Wage growth is helpful to get 2pct inflation-which is “what we need”
Still some slack at 5% unemployment rate
Wants gradual rate hike
“Absolutely December is a possibility” for a rate hike
We will go into meeting and view conditions at the time
They look they could be ripe for rate hike
The economy is good
But we have uncertainty on inflation
Preference on more delay
Notes auto sales are high but housing low
We can over shoot 2% inflation target
We need higher inflation that 1.5%, so we can lower rates
Can you accept a rate hike in December? I can’t say.

80% chance that Fed raises rates in December