Has Peak Silver Arrived In The United States?
2015 Silving Mining Production in the U.S. during August – October was down 15% from comparable months in 2014.
Yearly comparisons of U.S. silver mining production from 2012 and 2013, however, show 2015 mining production will be roughly in line with those years.
Update: U.S. Silver Mining Company increases silver production 4.5% in 2015
Silver Standard Resources reports record silver production in 2015
Silver analyst Steve St. Angelo recently asked a worthy question – Has peak silver has arrived? Mr. St. Angelo noted that United States domestic silver production in the U.S. was down 19% in September and 18% in October verses the same months last year and characterized this drop as “a significant trend change“.
While the month to month changes in U.S. silver mining production in September and October of 2015 from 2014 appear to represent a staggering drop in production, they do not reflect any significant trend change.
2015 U.S. Silver Mining Production Projected to be Higher than Mining Production of 2012 and 2013
2014 was a strong year for U.S silver mining production- the highest since 2010. U.S. silver mining production in 2012 and 2013 resembles more closely the production of 2015 than that of 2014 as the chart below indicates.
In order to estimate final 2015 U.S. silver mining production, we assumed a continued stunning 18% drop in November and December mining output from the comparable months in 2014.
U.S. silver mining production in 2015 is on pace to exceed U.S. silver mining production of 2012 and 2013.
The chart below indicates that even with assumed decreases in U.S. silver mining production of 18% in November and December 2015 from 2014 levels, production in those months will still be higher than the same months in 2013.
Indeed, if 2015 U.S. silver mining production in November were to fall 24% from 2014 levels (105 tonnes) it would still be higher (79.8 tonnes) than November 2013’s production (79 tonnes).
U.S. silver mining production in 2014 was the highest since 2010.
Peak silver in the U.S. and around the world may be around the corner as Mr. St. Angelo suggests based on a potential collapse of global GDP. The U.S. silver mining production numbers to date do not however, suggest anything resembling peak silver* in the U.S. is approaching.
*silver mining production in the United States has consistently ranged between 1130 tonnes and 1280 tonnes annually since 2003. The peak in silver mining production since 1991 was in 1997 when 2,180 tonnes were produced.
Silver mining over the last thirty -five years in the U.S. peaked in the late 1990’s.
See also – U.S. Silver Mining Production Does Not Cover the Amount of Silver Needed to Mint American Silver Eagles.
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