Strong Monsoon Season in India Expected To Boost Gold Demand

Indian Gold Demand And Imports Expected To Bounce off 2016 Lows.

Lower Prices, Diwali and Wedding Season to Boost Indian Gold Demand.

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Indian October Gold Imports Estimated to Be 60-70 Tons

After nine months of the lowest Indian gold import demand in ten years, October gold demand is expected to bounce of its 2016 lows. India has virtually no domestic gold mining production, so it relies almost entirely on imports and recycled gold to satisfy demand.

In India it is auspicious to give gold and to own gold. Only one third of 1.2 billion Indians have bank accounts. The percentage of Indians without bank accounts in rural areas is even lower and virtually zero in some areas.

Gold in the form of jewelry and bars act as a store of wealth for Indians.

Indian households are estimated to hold 18,000+ tons of gold.

Many Indians have placed gold buying on a temporary hold this year, based in part on higher prices, a ten percent import duty and a jewelry surtax. As such, pent up demand has developed that is set to be unleash this fall.



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Why Indian Gold Demand is Expected to Increase

  • gold demand historically rises in the fall during Diwali and the wedding season;
  • this year’s strong monsoon season gave farmers better crops and therefore, more cash to buy gold;
  • gold has pulled back $75-100 an ounce in October; and
  • gold demand has been low all year, so there is pent up demand

Buy gold in the measure that Indians buy gold- in “Tola” (.375 ounce bars)

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*The Indian gold import charts are derived from data pulled from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Govt. of India by Nick Laird of Goldchartsrus and are updated monthly and archived on Indian gold import data for May- September 2016 is from GFMS Thomson Reuters.

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