Gold Sales at the U.S. Mint Head Towards Record July.
Chinese and Indian Gold Demand Spikes in July.
Newly Minted Gold Authorities Projecting Lower Prices.
“Now if thou would’st, when all have given him over,
From death to life thou might’st him yet recover.” Michael Drayton
Lately, everyone is an authority on gold, especially its price. We are treated daily to an incessant barrage of lower gold price predictions.
The bulk of the lower gold price predictions are based on the “everything is awesome” narrative that reached its nadir yesterday with a “Gold is Doomed” collection of words strewn together and assembled in the Washington Post. “Gold is Doomed” contains a pronouncement that our policy makers “know what they are doing.”, a few mentions of Paul Krugman and the obligatory “gold doesn’t pay interest or dividends” insight.
No mention is made, however, that gold doesn’t default or go bankrupt either.
Gold Demand Down 14% in the Second Quarter
The more credible lower gold predictions are based on charts or an analysis of supply and demand.
Lower gold price prognositicators point to data from GMFS showing that gold demand is at its lowest level since 2009 and was down 14% in the second quarter ended June 30, 2015 while supply was up. These predictions fail to take into account that the price of gold is often totally detached from supply/demand factors as Dr. Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics discuss here.
Chinese and Indian Gold Demand Surges in July
Those making gold price predictions based on gold supply/demand dynamics based on recently released second quarter data might be interested in what has happened in the gold market since the second quarter ended and what the trend was at the end of the second quarter.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that sales of gold in China and India – the world’s two largest gold consuming nations- were up sharply citing a 20-30% increase in China. The Wall Street Journal also noted that June gold sales at Australia’s Perth Mint rose 37% month over month and that sales in July had already past June levels and “appear to be gaining momentum”.
U.S. Mint Gold Sales
After dismal gold sales at the United States Mint during the first five months of 2015, gold sales picked up in June, rising 363% from May’s sales.
Gold sales at the United States Mint continue to surge in July and past June’s sales totals in the first two weeks.
Sales of one ounce American Gold Eagle coins are approaching a July record.
Sales of one tenth ounce American Gold Eagle coins are also approaching a July record.
July month to date sales of all American Gold Eagle coins (sold in denominations of 1/10, 1/4, 1/2 and one ounce) are already more than twice June’s totals and are 24% higher than sales of all American Gold Eagle coins during April, May and June.
Through July 27, 2015, sales of American Gold Eagle coins have surpassed the entire second quarter mintage by nearly 25%.
U.S. Mint sales data source