In Case You Missed It.
In Case You Missed it Week Ended October 3, 2015.Stories from the week ended October 3, 2015.
The week began with continued discussion of the potential for an interest rate hike after Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke at the end of the prior week indicating she thought a rate hike by the end of the year would be appropriate.
The week ended with a general market consensus that rate hikes are off the table for 2015 after the Non Farm Payroll numbers for September were released showing poor overall job market growth. To make the employment picture bleaker, August and July’s Non Farm Payroll numbers were reduced downward.
In addition to “global market uncertainty”, Ms. Yellen had stated that she wanted to see “further evidence of improvement in the labor markets” before raising interest rates. On Friday she go evidence to the contrary.
Syria and President Obama’s meeting with Russian President Vladamir Putin dominated much of the news cycle last week.
Here are the stories we followed, covered or commented on during the week ended October 3, 2015.
September 26, 2015
The Price of Gold
Negative outlooks for gold popped up during the week, including this Kitco gem of an interview with CPM’s Jeff Christian who argued the short term view for gold was poor because there are no economic or political crisis at the moment. He added, he expected there to be such issues by 2017, at which time the price of gold might rise. Mr. Christian also argued in response to those that have noted that Comex registered gold (see chart) had fallen to historically low levels that over all Comex stocks of gold are high by historic standards.
No economic or poitical crisis until 2017, Comex gold is fully stocked – CPM’s Jeff Christian
Syria Gets Attention From Russia, China, France, Germany and the United States
Syria was back in the news as Russia, France and Germany entered the fray in the supposed fight against ISIS, with rumors that China was also contemplating involvement. Russia’s move to take the initiative in Syria put the U.S. on its heels for , pushing it aside, for the time being, as the dominant military/policy making power in the region.
France carries out airstrike against Syria
Germany and France enter alliance with Russia on Syria
Chinese Navy Sets off for Syria
Iraq says Russia, Iran, Syria cooperating on security issues in Baghdad
France supposedly had good economic news:
As French unemployment hit highs, consumer confidence also soars
September 27, 2015
Fed Presidents Speak
The regional Fed Presidents spoke today, with contrary positions regarding whether the Fed should raise rates this year.
Charles Evans, Chicago Fed President
Evans Says Fed Should Delay Liftoff, Inflation Risks Overblown
William Dudley, New York Fed President
Fed’s Dudley: Fed will likely raise rates later this year
U.S. Mint Sales Report
US Mint sold 6,500 American Gold Eagles today & 693,000 American Silver Eagles today.
MTD sales 95,000 one ounce Gold Eagles; 3,497,000 Silver Eagles
Another Investigation into Gold and Silver Manipulation
Swiss watchdog opens bank probe into precious metal collusion
I call it Emperor's New Clothes 2.0. In this version the kid pointing out the obvious is silenced. Parade continues https://t.co/2WHvL8hY4R
— Smaulgld (@Smaulgld) September 28, 2015
September 28, 2015
India and Gold
India to issue gold coins in connection with their gold monetization scheme.
Coins for gold monetization scheme to be launched in October
Indian Government plans 150 billion Rupee gold bond offering
U.S. Mint Sales Report
US Mint sold 6,500 American Gold Eagles today & 693,000 American Silver Eagles today.
MTD sales 95,000 one ounce Gold Eagles; 3,497,000 Silver Eagles
Pending Home Sales Decline
U.S. pending home sales decline in August
September 29, 2015
Obama and Putin Meet
Obama and Putin meet over Syria
Stock Jockeys Got a Boost From this Reuters Article
U.S. Mint Sales Report
India Cuts Interest Rates
India’s central bank cuts key interest rate to 6.75%
Bad News For Volkswagen
VW’s Stock to Be Removed From Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes After Emissions Scandal
From Smaulgld.com
We reported on surging junk silver premiums:
September 30, 2015
Silver News
Reuters Covers the Silver Shortage:
Silver-coin shortage shows bright side of precious metal collapse (notes “improving US economy”)
Bloomberg takes note of surging Indian and Chinese Gold Demand
Bloomberg Reports on Indian and Chinese Gold Demand
U.S. Mint Sales Report
US Mint sold 1,500 American Gold Eagles & no American Silver Eagles today.
MTD sales 98,500 Gold Eagles; 3,804,500 Silver Eagles
Marketwatch On Gold
Marketwatch refers to recent “Upbeat economic data” as reason for gold’s lower price.
IMF Weighs in on Fed Rate Hikes
IMF’s Lagarde says Fed should not rush its rate rise decision
Some not so “upbeat economic data was released today:
Chicago September PMI 48.7 vs 53.0
ISM Milwaukee 39.4, Exp. 48.5
Russia has sent military experts to Baghdad coordination centre: Russian official
Reuters reporting on the demise of gold
From Smaulgld.com
We reported on the U.S. Mint’s September gold and silver sales:
SILVER TO GOLD SALES RATIO SEPTEMBER 2015
October 1, 2015
Fed Head Yacking about a Rate Hike
Richmond Fed’s Lacker Says October Rate Rise Possible
Some tepid economic data was released today:
Initial jobless claims 277K
ISM 50.2, Exp. 50.6, Last 51.1
US Mfg Employment 50.8 Last 52.4,
US Mfg PMI 53.1, Exp. 53.0, Last 53.0
From Smaulgld.com
We reported on the nearly 400% increased in silver sales at the Perth Mint.
PERTH MINT SALES – SEPTEMBER 2015
October 2, 2015
Obama Predicts Russian Failure in Syria and Warns
Obama sees Russia failing in Syria and warned Putin of a “quagmire in Syria”
Reuters Claims Gold Demand in China and India is Sluggish
Non Farm Payroll Job Growth Falls off the Table
Non Farm Payroll MISS 142K
No wage increases
August NFP revised down from 173k to 136k
July NFP 235k to 223k
Labor Force Participation Rate down to 62.4%
Reuters reaction: Reuters:”China-led global economic slowdown is sapping America’s strength.”
CNBC reaction: “not what pretty much anybody expected.”
Food services and drinking establishments have added 349,000 jobs over the past year. #DRINK
Bloomberg reaction: Bloomberg: The weak report vindicates the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay an interest-rate increase last month
From Smaulgld.com
We reported on the continued mega withdrawals of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange:
SHANGHAI GOLD EXCHANGE WITHDRAWALS – WEEK ENDED SEPTEMBER 25, 2015